The Candidate Emergence Study

The Candidate Emergence Study (CES)

Principal Investigators
L. Sandy Maisel, Colby College
Walter J. Stone, University of California, Davis
Cherie D. Maestas, Florida State University

The Candidate Emergence Study is a multi-year project that seeks to understand how potential candidates for the United States House of Representatives decide whether to run for Congress. The decisions potential candidates make about whether to run directly affect the competitiveness of House election campaigns, how much money is spent, the kinds of campaigns that are run, etc. As a result, our study extends beyond the decision-making of potential House candidates to examine the intensity and content of House campaigns, and how voters respond to variations in campaigns. We draw on extensive surveys of potential candidates, district informants and voters in House election campaigns in 1998, 2002, and 2006. We have received research funding from the National Science Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation, Colby College, and the University of California, Davis. None of the funding organizations is responsible for the analysis or interpretations we present.

Below is a list of recent publications and papers from the CES.

Articles in Scholarly Journals

Sarah A. Fulton, Cherie D. Maestas, L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone. "The Sense of a Woman: Gender, Ambition, and the Decision to Run for Congress." Political Research Quarterly. June, 2006; 59:2; pp. 235-48. An earlier draft of this paper won the Pi Sigma Alpha award as the best paper, Western Political Science Association, 2004.

Cherie D. Maestas, Sarah A. Fulton, L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone. "When to Risk It? Institutions, Ambitions, and the Decision to Run for the U.S. House." American Political Science Review. May, 2006; 100:2; pp. 195-208.

Cherie D. Maestas, L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone. "National Party Efforts to Recruit State Legislators." Legislative Studies Quarterly. May 2005; 30:2; pp. 277-300.

Walter J. Stone, L. Sandy Maisel, Cherie D. Maestas. "Quality Counts: Extending the Strategic Politician Model of Incumbent Deterrence." American Journal of Political Science. July 2004; 48:3; pp. 479-95.

Walter J. Stone and L. Sandy Maisel. "The Not-So-Simple Calculus of Winning: Potential U.S. House Candidates' Nomination and General Election Chances." Journal of Politics. November 2003; 65:4; pp. 951-77.

L. Sandy Maisel and Walter J. Stone. "Determinants of Candidate Emergence in U.S. House Elections: An Exploratory Study." Legislative Studies Quarterly. February 1997; 22:1; pp. 79-96.

Other Publications

L. Sandy Maisel, Cherie D. Maestas, Walter J. Stone. "The Impact of Redistricting on Candidate Emergence." Thomas E. Mann and Bruce E. Cain, eds., Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship, and Congressional Redistricting. Brookings Institution Press, 2005, pp. 31-50.

L. Sandy Maisel, Cherie D. Maestas, Walter J. Stone. "The Party Role in Congressional Competition." L. Sandy Maisel, ed. The Parties Respond: Change in American Parties and Campaigns. Westview Press, 2002, pp. 121-38

L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone, Cherie D. Maestas. "Quality Challengers to Congressional Incumbents: Can Better Candidates Be Found?" Paul Herrnson, ed., Playing Hardball: Campaigning for the U.S. Congress. Prentice Hall, 2001. pp. 12-40.

L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone. "Primary Elections as a Deterrent to Candidacy for the U.S. House of Representatives." Peter Galderisi, Marni Ezra, Michael Lyons ed., Congressional Primaries and the Politics of Representation. Rowman and Littlefield, 2001. pp. 29-47.

L. Sandy Maisel, Walter J. Stone. "The Politics of Government-Funded Research: Notes from the Experience of the Candidate Emergence Study." PS-Political Science and Politics. December, 1998, 31:4, pp. 811-17

Working Papers

Walter J. Stone, Sarah A. Fulton, Cherie D. Maestas, L. Sandy Maisel. "Incumbency Reconsidered: Prospects, Strategic Entry, and Incumbent Quality in U.S. House Elections." An earlier version of this paper won the Pi Sigma Alpha paper for the best paper, Western Political Science Association, 2005.

Walter J. Stone, Nathan J. Hadley, Rolfe D. Peterson, Cherie D. Maestas, L. Sandy Maisel. "Candidate Quality and Voter Response in U.S. House Elections"

Candidate Emergence Study Report to Respondents (January 1998)

Data Sets